Level 5 — Advanced · Technical & Evaluative Speaking
Drill 66: Giving a Calibrated Risk Statement Live
Match your spoken confidence exactly to the evidence — live, unscripted, no upgrading a possibility into a guarantee under pressure.
Learning Objectives
By the end of this drill, you should be able to:
- Choose the hedge word that matches real confidence, live and unscripted
- Separate probability from impact when speaking about a risk
- Resist the pressure of speaking fast to overstate certainty
Introduction
Lesson 66 taught you to preserve an author's exact level of uncertainty. Under time pressure, speakers often round "may" up to "will" without noticing — this drill trains you to resist that, live.
Shadow the Model
Delays are unlikely under normal conditions. But if a key supplier misses the deadline, the impact on the schedule could be severe.
Notice "unlikely" and "could be severe" are both said with confidence in the delivery, even though the content itself is hedged — calibration is about word choice, not about sounding unsure.
Your Turn
Your Turn
You'll be given a short risk scenario. When the timer starts, state: (1) how likely the risk is, using an accurate hedge word, and (2) how severe the impact would be if it happened — as two separate, clearly distinguished statements.
Give your risk statement now — no planning, just speak
Record Yourself
Give your risk statement, then record it and compare your hedge words against the model.
Model Answer
Show a model answer
There's no single correct wording, but a strong answer clearly separates "how likely" from "how bad if it happens" as two distinct sentences, and picks a hedge word (unlikely, likely, possible) that matches the actual scenario rather than defaulting to "definitely" or "probably" out of habit.
Vocabulary in Context
probabilitynountechnical
how likely something is to happen (সম্ভাবনা)
Often with high probability, low probability, probability of
“The probability of a berth delay this month is about one in five.”
severeadjectiveformal
serious in effect or consequence (গুরুতর)
Often with severe consequences, severe delay, less severe
“The impact of a fuel spill would be severe, even though the probability is low.”
Self-Check
Self-Check
- Did you state probability and impact as two separate, clearly distinguished statements?
- Did your hedge word match the real strength of the scenario, not an automatic default?
- Did you respond immediately, with no planning pause?
Next: Speaking 67 — Stating a Conditional Rule Live: saying "if," "only if," and "unless" for exactly the direction you mean.