Level 4 — Upper Intermediate · Argument Writing
Task 32: Testing a Causal Claim With a Counterfactual
Write a causal claim, then write the counterfactual question that actually tests it — the writing side of Lesson 32's counterfactual reasoning skills.
Learning Objectives
By the end of this task, you should be able to:
- Write a causal claim, then write the specific counterfactual question that would test it
- Consider regression to the mean as an alternative explanation when the starting point was unusually extreme
- Use before/after language honestly without letting 'after' quietly imply 'because'
Introduction
Lesson 32 taught you to test a causal claim by imagining the world where the supposed cause never happened. This task asks you to build that test into your own writing: state a before/after result, then write the exact counterfactual question that checks whether the cause really did the work.
The Rule, for Writing
Core Concept
State your before/after claim first, but avoid letting "after" silently mean "because." Then write the counterfactual question directly: "What would have happened to [outcome] if [the supposed cause] had never happened?" If your starting point was unusually extreme (a very bad month, a very low score), consider regression to the mean as an honest alternative explanation — extreme results tend to drift back toward normal on their own, cause or no cause.
Example
Customer complaints fell after the call center introduced a new training program. Counterfactual question: would complaints have fallen anyway, without the training, simply because the previous month's complaint total was unusually high to begin with? Honest note: if the "before" period was an unusual spike, regression to the mean alone could explain part of the drop.
Your Turn
Your Turn
Write a paragraph describing a real or plausible before/after result you know something about (a change at work, a personal habit, a team outcome). State the result without letting "after" silently mean "because." Then write the specific counterfactual question that would test whether the supposed cause actually produced it, and note whether regression to the mean could be part of the explanation.
Vocabulary in Context
counterfactualadjectivetechnical
describing what would have happened in a world where the supposed cause did not occur (বাস্তবতা-বিরোধী)
Often with counterfactual scenario, counterfactual question, counterfactual reasoning
“The counterfactual question is what would have happened without the new system.”
regression to the meannoun phrasetechnical
the tendency for an unusually extreme result to drift back toward average on its own (গড়ের দিকে প্রত্যাবর্তন)
Often with due to regression to the mean, explain by regression to the mean, regression to the mean effect
“A record-bad month may improve simply through regression to the mean.”
Model Answer
Show a model answer
After the terminal introduced a mandatory safety briefing before every shift, the number of yard incidents fell for three straight months. The real test is a counterfactual one: would incidents have fallen anyway, without the briefings, simply because the month before the change had an unusually high number of incidents to begin with? Since that earlier month was a clear spike compared to the terminal's normal rate, regression to the mean is a genuine alternative explanation the report should not ignore before crediting the briefings alone.
Self-Check
Self-Check
- Did you avoid letting "after" silently mean "because" in your first sentence?
- Did you write the specific counterfactual question, not just a vague doubt?
- Did you consider regression to the mean if your starting point was unusually extreme?
- Did you write this directly in English, without translating from Bangla first?
Next: Writing 33 — Argument Evaluation & Logical Fallacies: writing an argument that deliberately avoids a named fallacy, and explaining exactly how it avoids it.