Level 5 — Advanced · Technical & Evidence-Based Writing
Task 66: Writing a Calibrated Risk Statement
Write a forecast or risk statement that hedges exactly as strongly as the evidence allows — no more, no less — the discipline Lesson 66 taught you to read.
Learning Objectives
By the end of this task, you should be able to:
- Distinguish possible from likely from certain when stating a forecast
- Separate probability from impact when describing a risk
- Avoid silently upgrading a hedge into a guarantee
Introduction
Lesson 66 taught you to preserve an author's exact level of uncertainty — never silently upgrading "may improve" into "will improve." This task asks you to write your own risk or forecast statement, calibrated precisely, without either overstating or underselling your confidence.
The Rule, for Writing
Core Concept
Pick your hedge word deliberately: "may" or "could" for a real possibility, "likely" for something you expect but can't promise, "expected to" for a stated projection. Separate the probability of a risk from its impact — a low-probability, high-impact risk is not the same statement as a high-probability, low-impact one.
Example
Delays are unlikely under normal conditions, but if a key supplier fails to deliver on time, the impact on the full schedule could be severe. The project is expected to finish on schedule, though this assumes no further disruption.
Your Turn
Your Turn
Write a short risk or forecast statement for a real or realistic project or system. Use at least two different hedge words (may, could, likely, expected to) correctly, and separate the probability of one risk from its potential impact.
Vocabulary in Context
likelyadjectiveneutral
probable, though not certain (সম্ভাব্য)
Often with highly likely, likely to, most likely
“A delay is likely if the storm continues.”
impactnounformal
the size or seriousness of an effect, separate from how probable it is (প্রভাব)
Often with significant impact, impact on, potential impact
“The impact of a fuel spill would be severe even though the probability is low.”
Model Answer
Show a model answer
Under normal conditions, a delay in customs clearance is unlikely — the process has run smoothly for the past six months. However, if a document is flagged for manual review, the impact could be significant, potentially adding several days to the schedule. The shipment is expected to clear on time, though this assumes no unusual inspection requirements arise, which remains outside the exporter's control.
Self-Check
Self-Check
- Did you use at least two different hedge words correctly, matching their real strength?
- Did you keep probability and impact as two separate statements, not collapsed into one?
- Did you avoid silently upgrading any hedge into a guarantee anywhere in the passage?
- Did you write directly in English, without composing the passage in Bangla first?
Next: Writing 67 — Writing a Conditional Rule: using if, only if, and if and only if for exactly the logical direction you mean.